How much time is left for newspapers to make money?

The answers to this question have so far widely ranged from 5 years to forever. Arthur Sulzberger, the New York Times chairman who recently merged the paper’s print and online news desks, said last year: “I really don’t know whether we’ll be printing the Times in five years, and you know what? I don’t care either.” The CEO does not care if the Times will be printed because he believes other sources of revenue such as the online version will be able to make as much money as the printed one does.

On the other hand, some people in the media industry still refuse to withdraw their belief in the future of the printed news market, even though having witnessed the continuous circulation reduction that almost every newspaper is experiencing these days. Two supporting evidences for such belief are presented. First, they argue that no medium in the human history was totally replaced by a newer one. From books, movies, radio, TV, newspapers to the Internet, all media invented so far are altogether around us instead of disappearing. Second, the newest medium, the online news sites, is still struggling to find such a sustainable business model as that of newspapers.

Another answer to this controversial question was presented at a meeting of the Lords’ committee on Media Ownership and the News on 16 January. The editor of The Sun newspaper, Rebekah Wade, told the committee that her newspaper’s internet edition cannot yet replicate the economic operations of the printed news. But she forecasted: “The Sun's revenue from the internet would become significant in 14 to 15 years time.” Staggering growth of online operations did not mean that much, she said, as growth was from a base of nil and. The pace will dramatically increase in the coming years as internet operations develop, she added. "We have a set of projections [for internet development] and sets of targets that we want to achieve, and so far we are achieving them." See journalism.co.uk

I think she gave us one of the most realistic predictions on the future of the print and the online news markets. In 15 years from now, those who spent their teenage years in the late 1990s and the early 2000s will reach the peak in their careers and play the role of opinion leaders both in a household and in a society. Because they grew up in an environment where the Internet kept penetrating deeper and deeper into people’s daily lives, they may have no objection to a news market dominated by the online stories.